Sometimes you can’t catch a break. Just as we received some good news on the global inflation front, problems in China’s economy have resurfaced. The big event last week was the release of July activity data from China – and it made for pretty gloomy reading. Retail sales, fixed investment and industrial production all slowed … Continue reading “China’s property woes don’t augur a 2008-style crisis. The good news ends there.”
Finally, some good news on the inflation front. But signs of cooling consumer and producer price pressures in the US are unlikely to silence the vigorous debate among economists about what central banks will still need to do to bring inflation back down to more comfortable levels. It’s a debate that was triggered by a … Continue reading “Don't ignore the supply side – it may be key to getting inflation back to target”
This is not a grown-up race for the Conservative party leadership. A grown-up race would involve grown-up debate around the economic policies needed for the UK to secure sustainable growth in its future. Instead, we have the unedifying spectacle of two candidates battling almost exclusively on who can deliver the biggest tax cuts and when. … Continue reading “In UK PM race, tax cuts are a distraction from economic challenges”
There’s a high chance that the first task of either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister will be to navigate the economy through a recession. That will require them to relinquish their dogmatic approaches to tax and adopt more practical policies to minimise the damage. CPI inflation was at a 40-year high of 9.4% in June and will probably increase to … Continue reading “Pragmatic Prime Minister is needed to navigate recession”
Read the latest global economic insight and forecasts in our Q3 Global Economic Outlook.
Our Q3 US Economic Outlook discusses our views and forecasts on growth, inflation dynamics and the Fed’s policy response.
Our latest Q3 European Economic Outlooks explains why growth will be much weaker than the consensus or the European Central Bank expect.
Next week marks the tenth anniversary of Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. That was the line-in-the-sand moment that paved the way for policies that eventually brought an end to the crisis which had engulfed the euro-zone. A decade later, the single currency again finds itself in the crosshairs, … Continue reading “The ECB’s got 99 problems but a weak euro ain’t one”
The one-two punch of the pandemic and war in Ukraine has fundamentally shifted the narrative around globalisation. In 2019, the research prepared for our annual ‘Spotlight’ event explained why we thought globalisation had peaked and how the risks of deglobalisation were being underappreciated. While many of the risks we warned about have crystallised, the era-defining … Continue reading “From deglobalisation to outright fracturing – the global economy’s post-pandemic, post-Ukraine reality”
Our exclusive US Recession Watch report brings you the latest readings from our series of trackers which show that a recession is neither imminent nor inevitable.