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OPEC Watch

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.)

OPEC’s monthly report for August showed that the group continues to produce significantly less than its quota and we expect this trend to continue in the coming months. OPEC is clearly worried about demand due to the economic slowdown, and that’s despite news of some gas-to-oil switching in power generation.

11 August 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (July)

OPEC unveiled its oil market forecasts for 2023 in its monthly report today. OPEC is more bullish than us on demand, forecasting an increase of 2.7m barrels per day. But even though it is also quite optimistic on non-OPEC supply, the group’s forecasts point to the need for a nearly 1m bpd rise in OPEC output next year. This suggests to us that OPEC+ might adopt a more liberal oil production policy from September.

12 July 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (June)

The gap between OPEC-10’s quota and output widened further in May, which adds weight to our view that the group will fail to fully unwind its production cuts by year-end. What’s more, whilst OPEC now forecasts a small fall in Russia’s production this year, we think it is still being too optimistic.

14 June 2022
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OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (May)

OPEC lowered its forecast for Russia’s oil production this year, but still expects it to rise. By contrast, we think Russia’s output will fall and see rising pressure on OPEC to step up output in response.

13 May 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.)

OPEC oil production rose a little in March, but the group continues to underproduce. What’s more, its optimistic non-OPEC supply forecasts suggest that it has no intention of boosting output in the near term.

12 April 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Mar.)

Although OPEC oil production rose in February, it remained well below target. And while OPEC left its 2022 oil demand and supply forecasts unchanged, it hinted at revisions due to “geopolitical turmoil”.

15 March 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Feb.)

OPEC raised oil output in January, but the shortfall relative to target grew even larger. We never expected OPEC to manage to completely unwind its production cuts this year, but there is a growing risk that it will produce even less than we anticipate. This is a key upside risk to our oil price forecasts.

10 February 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.)

OPEC continued to raise output by less than its target in December. However, the group is still steadily raising output, which is a key reason why we see the market moving into a surplus this year.

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