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Middle East Data Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-four-year high of 14.6% y/y in August as the impact of the weaker pound continued to filtered through. Inflation is likely to rise a little further over the rest of this year and with the pound set to be allowed to depreciate at a faster rate too, we think this will prompt a further 150bp of interest rate hikes, to 12.75%.

8 September 2022

Japan Data Response

Japan Consumer Prices (Jul. 2022)

Headline inflation was the highest since 1991 in July and we think it still has higher to climb. But this will not make the Bank of Japan budge on its ultra-easy monetary policy. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

19 August 2022

Capital Daily

We doubt short-term yield gaps will weigh on the US dollar

Even if short-term nominal yield gaps continue to shift against the US dollar, we don’t expect its rally to abate yet.

18 August 2022

Latin America Data Response

Chile GDP (Q2)

Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the deficit widening to more than 8% of GDP in Q2 – which will keep the peso on the backfoot.

18 August 2022

Emerging Europe Economics Update

CBRT rate cut sowing the seeds of next currency crisis

Turkey’s central bank stepped up its fight against economic orthodoxy by cutting its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, despite the backdrop of inflation at 80% and an extremely poor external position. This latest move could prove to be the trigger for yet another currency crisis.

18 August 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Final HICP (July)

Final inflation data for July underline that price pressures remain strong and broad-based. With wholesale natural gas and electricity prices having surged again in the weeks since July, retail gas and electricity prices are set to rise steeply in the coming months, keeping the headline rate high.

18 August 2022

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

50 is the new 25 for the Norges Bank

Following today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp at the second consecutive meeting, we now expect the Bank to make it a hat-trick of 50bp hikes at the next meeting in September. With price pressures looking strong, further rate increases are likely to follow.

18 August 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Philippines: tightening cycle still has some legs

The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today raised its policy rate by a further 50bps to 3.75%, and gave a strong indication that more rate hikes are likely over the coming months. That said, with inflation set to peak soon and headwinds to the economic recovery mounting, we don’t think the tightening cycle will run much beyond the second half of this year.

18 August 2022

Australia & New Zealand Data Response

Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2022)

We wouldn’t read too much into the first drop in employment since last year’s lockdowns. Indeed, the continued tightening of the labour market should encourage the RBA to press ahead with another 50bp rate hike next month.

18 August 2022

China Economics Update

Struggling for momentum

China’s post-Omicron rebound has fizzled out and the prospects for near-term growth are poor. Virus outbreaks are happening with increasing frequency. The housing market remains in a downward spiral. And exports look set to drop back before long. To make matters worse, credit growth has so far been unresponsive to policy easing. More support is on its way but it will probably be too late too little to prevent output from stagnating this year. And once the economy does return to growth, it will be at a slower pace than in the past.

18 August 2022

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