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Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The large fall in US commercial crude stocks was mostly due to a renewed rise in exports. Implied gasoline demand rose for a second consecutive week, but this failed to lift prices amid growing concerns over demand prospects. That said, we expect that risks to supply could still support prices later in the year.

17 August 2022

OPEC Watch

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.)

OPEC’s monthly report for August showed that the group continues to produce significantly less than its quota and we expect this trend to continue in the coming months. OPEC is clearly worried about demand due to the economic slowdown, and that’s despite news of some gas-to-oil switching in power generation.

11 August 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not be sustainable if, as we think likely, Russia-related risks lead to higher crude prices later in the year.

10 August 2022

Middle East Economics Update

Qatar’s LNG boost still a few years away

With Russia tightening its squeeze on supply of gas to Europe, governments are turning their attention to other major gas exporters such as Qatar to try to fill the gap. But Qatar’s gas sector is already operating close to capacity and, while the North Field expansion that comes online from 2025 will boost the country’s LNG capacity by over 60%, this wouldn’t be a panacea for Europe’s gas shortages. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this MENA Update to clients of our Energy and Emerging Europe Services.

9 August 2022

Energy Update

We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply

Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago haven’t entirely vanished. Indeed, following the OPEC+ meeting this week, we are now less upbeat on supply. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Crude oil prices have been for a rollercoaster ride today, rising by $3 per barrel following the OPEC+ meeting, and then more than erasing those gains later on. Prices fell particularly sharply after US stocks data came out, which showed a rise in commercial stocks. But, we think investors might have missed the bigger picture, which is that stocks including government reserves fell for the 24th time this year.

3 August 2022

Commodities Outlook

Prices to find a floor

While non-energy commodities prices may fall a little further, we think the big move down in those prices is now behind us. Admittedly, the demand outlook has undeniably deteriorated in recent months, but many of the supply risks that prompted prices to soar earlier in the year are still with us. Moreover, our forecast of persistently high energy prices means that the cost of production of most other commodities will remain elevated for much of this year and into 2023.

28 July 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

There were large increases in both crude and product exports in the latest data, which will add fuel to lobbyists’ calls for restrictions on exports while prices are high.

27 July 2022

Global Economics Update

The natural gas crisis and the global economy

The news today that Gazprom will further reduce its natural gas supply to Europe increases the likelihood of recessions in the euro-zone, UK and parts of Emerging Europe. It also supports our view that inflation pressures will be relatively persistent in Europe, so the ECB and the Bank of England will be forced to raise interest rates further than markets expect. While some economies will benefit from higher gas prices, the net effect will be negative for the global economy. Drop-In (Weds, 27th July): Will high inflation and monetary tightening result in a global recession? Join this 20-minute briefing on our Global Economic Outlook to find out which economies are vulnerable and which could outperform. Register here.

26 July 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

US commercial stocks fell last week, largely on the back of a rise in exports and a drop in imports. The fall came despite another bumper release from the strategic reserve. As those government stock drawdowns ease over the remainder of the year, commercial stocks could easily fall further.

20 July 2022

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