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South Africa Activity Data (Jun.)

The hard activity data out of South Africa for June suggest that the economy contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q2, and we think that activity will remain weak in the coming quarters too.

17 August 2022

Kenya Election Result

After nearly a week since voters went to the ballot box, William Ruto was finally announced President-elect in Kenya, but investors’ roller-coaster ride will probably continue over the coming days and weeks with political risks set to run high.Following Kenya’s elections on 9th August, results were announced today with William Ruto (currently Deputy President) declared the official winner of the…

15 August 2022

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 19.6% y/y last month and we think that the headline rate will rise a bit further. Policymakers are likely to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate from 14.00% to 14.50% at the next MPC meeting in September, but we suspect the tightening cycle will not run beyond that as price pressures start to ease and the elections come into view.

15 August 2022
More Publications

Nigeria’s recovery looking bleak

The latest data out of Nigeria suggest that GDP growth weakened further in Q2. Ongoing production problems in the oil sector will drag on growth in the coming year and, while that is likely to be offset by fiscal stimulus ahead of February’s elections, we think the economy will fare worse than most expect in 2022-23.

Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA

The fact that Kenya’s elections have, so far, proceeded peacefully have supported a rally in the country’s bond market. But with no official results available yet and reports pointing to a tight race, significant risks abound. Meanwhile, currencies of major African economies have fared quite differently over the past month. While the South African rand has rallied, the further falls in the Ghanaian cedi and Nigerian naira (on the parallel market) point to increasingly acute economic problems.

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor

Capital outflows from EMs have eased over the past month, helping to stabilise local asset prices. But we think outflows will pick up again before long. That’s a threat to those EMs whose current account deficits have widened or are widening sharply, including Turkey, Chile and parts of Central Europe. Emerging Europe Drop-In (11th Aug): We’re expecting downturns in Central and Eastern Europe, but how bad could it get? Join this 20-minute briefing on our Q3 Outlook report, including the latest on Turkey, Russia and whether Hungary’s forint has further to fall. Register now.

Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again

Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming years and a sovereign debt restructuring is likely. Over the medium-term, we're doubtful that the government will be able to push through its ambitious reform agenda. Ethiopia’s growth miracle, in which the economy grew at rates of 8-12%, has come to an end.

Zambia’s creditors pledge debt relief, Kenya’s elections

News that Zambia’s official creditors agreed to provide debt relief is certainly encouraging and will unlock IMF funding. But the terms of the deal remain unknown, leaving in doubt that the country’s public debt will return to a sustainable path. Meanwhile, investors are on tenterhooks just as much as Kenyan voters ahead of Tuesday’s elections that are shaping up to be a close race. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

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