client area » regions » Global
My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Global

We doubt short-term yield gaps will weigh on the US dollar

Even if short-term nominal yield gaps continue to shift against the US dollar, we don’t expect its rally to abate yet.

18 August 2022

Pound likely to remain under pressure this year

We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar.

17 August 2022

Equity and commodity prices may go their own ways

We think equity and commodity prices will generally head in opposite directions over this year and next.

16 August 2022
More Publications

China’s equities and the renminbi may remain under pressure

We expect external and domestic headwinds to keep Chinese equities and the renminbi under pressure over the rest of 2022.

15 August 2022
Asia-Pacific
China
Global
Bonds
Equities
Growth and Activity
Markets
Monetary Policy

What recessions mean for the labour market

Given that unemployment rates have usually risen significantly in recessions, it is tempting to conclude that history is about to repeat itself, to the frustration of policymakers seeking soft landings in labour markets. But the pandemic has produced uncertainties that raise the possibility of jobless rates not rising too far.

15 August 2022
Global
Growth and Activity
Inflation
Labour Markets

Dollar falters on continued risk-on rally

The US dollar continued to struggle this week as equity markets extended their rebound and commodity prices also rallied: the currencies of commodity exporters and other economies most exposed to global growth generally fared well. Wednesday’s lower-than-expected US CPI data provided the latest catalyst: the S&P 500 rose around 2% following the CPI report, and the DXY index registered one of its worst days in recent years, falling by more than 1%. Nonetheless, further hawkish comments from FOMC members, weak credit data out of China and today’s strong US consumer confidence survey have provided some support for the greenback. Our sense remains that the dollar rally will resume before too long. It will take a lot more good news on inflation before the Fed changes tack. The minutes from the last FOMC meeting, released next week, and the Jackson Hole conference the week after may well push back further against the notion that the Fed is “pivoting”.

12 August 2022
Global
North America
US
FX
Markets

Pressure from rising Treasury yields likely to resume

This week the prices of most commodities got a boost as investors pared back expectations for rate hikes in the US, following lower than expected inflation data. That said, we still expect a further small rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield by the end of the year, which could put renewed downward pressure on the prices of commodities, and particularly gold, in the coming months. Supply disruption caused by the war in Ukraine seems to be easing, as grain ships have continued to leave Ukrainian ports. Meanwhile, there were renewed efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. While there are still hurdles, if a deal were agreed, we would expect a rapid rise in Iranian oil output, which would weigh on oil prices. Next week, we’ll be paying close attention to the latest activity and spending data from China on Monday. We expect that the data will show that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam in July, alongside a renewed deterioration in the property sector, which could weigh on industrial metals prices next week.

12 August 2022
Global
Agriculturals
Commodities
Energy
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals

Harder to see fears of a US slowdown in markets

We think that renewed optimism about the US economy – which seems to have gained more traction in financial markets following signs that inflation is easing – is overdone. Our view that the US economy is set for a weak patch is one reason why we expect many “risky” assets to reverse their recent gains.

12 August 2022
Global
Growth and Activity
Inflation
Markets
1 to 8 of 5678 publications
Research Publications
Filters
My Subscription All Publications
Explore other topics
×
We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. Read our Cookie Policy for more information.

Email

business@capitaleconomics.com

Phone Number

+44 (0)20 7823 5000

Capital Economics Ltd

5th Floor, 100 Victoria Street
Cardinal Place
London
SW1E 5JL

Services

Insights

About us

Terms of Website| Terms of Sale| Privacy|

© 2023 Capital Economics Ltd