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Growth and Activity

Chile GDP (Q2)

Chile’s economy merely stagnated in Q2 and the chances are high that it will fall into recession over the second half of the year. Meanwhile, current account risks are continuing to build – with the deficit widening to more than 8% of GDP in Q2 – which will keep the peso on the backfoot.

18 August 2022

Struggling for momentum

China’s post-Omicron rebound has fizzled out and the prospects for near-term growth are poor. Virus outbreaks are happening with increasing frequency. The housing market remains in a downward spiral. And exports look set to drop back before long. To make matters worse, credit growth has so far been unresponsive to policy easing. More support is on its way but it will probably be too late too little to prevent output from stagnating this year. And once the economy does return to growth, it will be at a slower pace than in the past.

18 August 2022

Retail Sales (Jul.)

While overall retail sales were unchanged in July, the details were far more encouraging, with a price-related fall in gasoline sales freeing up households to increase spending on other goods. With prices no longer rising rapidly, the increase in underlying retail sales is consistent with a rebound in real consumption at the beginning of the third quarter.

17 August 2022
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Egypt: Amer’s resignation raises scrutiny of pound policy

The resignation of Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) Governor Tarek Amer points to a growing tension within policymaking circles on the best way to address the country’s external imbalances. We think the next governor will ultimately need to let the pound fall further – our forecast is for the currency to fall to 25/$ by end-2024 (from 19.1/$ now) – and hike interest rates.

17 August 2022
Egypt
Middle East
Growth and Activity
Politics and Institutions

South Africa Activity Data (Jun.)

The hard activity data out of South Africa for June suggest that the economy contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q2, and we think that activity will remain weak in the coming quarters too.

17 August 2022
Africa
South Africa
Growth and Activity

EM inflation nearing its peak

Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in Emerging Europe and Latin America that have already hiked interest rates aggressively and are becoming increasingly concerned about growth, this may provide some space to wind down their tightening cycles. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.  

17 August 2022
Emerging Asia
Emerging Europe
Latin America
Growth and Activity
Inflation

Colombia: regional outperformer in 2022

The robust 1.5% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q2 suggests that the economy’s recovery will be among the strongest in the region this year. Strong growth, alongside upside inflation surprises and the fragile external position mean that the central bank’s tightening cycle has a bit further to run. We expect the policy rate to be raised to 10.50% by October (previously 9.50%), from 9.00% now.  

17 August 2022
Latin America
Growth and Activity

Central and Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2022)

A mixed performance, with Poland getting the wrong headlines GDP in Hungary and Romania continued to expand strongly in Q2 by 1-2% q/q, but the Czech and Slovakian economies barely grew at all and there was a shocking 2.3% q/q contraction in Poland. Looking ahead, the economic outlook has deteriorated sharply. External demand is weakening and inflation continues to surge.…

17 August 2022
Emerging Europe
Growth and Activity
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