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Inflation

Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-four-year high of 14.6% y/y in August as the impact of the weaker pound continued to filtered through. Inflation is likely to rise a little further over the rest of this year and with the pound set to be allowed to depreciate at a faster rate too, we think this will prompt a further 150bp of interest rate hikes, to 12.75%.

8 September 2022

CBRT rate cut sowing the seeds of next currency crisis

Turkey’s central bank stepped up its fight against economic orthodoxy by cutting its one-week repo rate by 100bp, to 13.00%, despite the backdrop of inflation at 80% and an extremely poor external position. This latest move could prove to be the trigger for yet another currency crisis.

18 August 2022

Euro-zone Final HICP (July)

Final inflation data for July underline that price pressures remain strong and broad-based. With wholesale natural gas and electricity prices having surged again in the weeks since July, retail gas and electricity prices are set to rise steeply in the coming months, keeping the headline rate high.

18 August 2022
More Publications

50 is the new 25 for the Norges Bank

Following today’s decision by the Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp at the second consecutive meeting, we now expect the Bank to make it a hat-trick of 50bp hikes at the next meeting in September. With price pressures looking strong, further rate increases are likely to follow.

Pound likely to remain under pressure this year

We think the Bank of England will hike interest rates by less than money markets now discount, which in turn should keep the pound under pressure against the dollar.

Retail Sales (Jul.)

While overall retail sales were unchanged in July, the details were far more encouraging, with a price-related fall in gasoline sales freeing up households to increase spending on other goods. With prices no longer rising rapidly, the increase in underlying retail sales is consistent with a rebound in real consumption at the beginning of the third quarter.

EM inflation nearing its peak

Aggregate EM inflation came in at its highest rate since 2008 last month, but there are signs that it is starting to stabilise and it should fall back in the coming months. For central banks in Emerging Europe and Latin America that have already hiked interest rates aggressively and are becoming increasingly concerned about growth, this may provide some space to wind down their tightening cycles. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.  

Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2)

The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates and the energy crisis will push the economy into recession before the end of this year. Europe Drop-In (18th Aug.): Winter is coming to the European economy – but how harsh will it get? Join this special briefing on the economic impact of Russia’s gas supply threat. Register now.  

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