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Labour Markets

Australia Labour Market (Jul. 2022)

We wouldn’t read too much into the first drop in employment since last year’s lockdowns. Indeed, the continued tightening of the labour market should encourage the RBA to press ahead with another 50bp rate hike next month.

18 August 2022

Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2)

The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates and the energy crisis will push the economy into recession before the end of this year. Europe Drop-In (18th Aug.): Winter is coming to the European economy – but how harsh will it get? Join this special briefing on the economic impact of Russia’s gas supply threat. Register now.  

17 August 2022

Australia Wage Price Index (Q2)

Wage growth surpassed its pre-virus peak in Q2 and will jump above 3% this quarter due to a surge in the minimum wage and a tightening labour market. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

17 August 2022
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Industrial Production (Jul.)

The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production in July was much stronger than we expected and provides another clear sign that the economy is still in expansionary territory. That said, the likely drag on manufacturing from the impending global economic downturn means that the resilience of production may not last for long.

16 August 2022
North America
US
Growth and Activity
Labour Markets

Higher migration not enough to cool labour market

An increase in the permanent migration programme will help to alleviate labour shortages. But the rapid tightening of the labour market in recent months has been driven by strong labour demand rather than a shortfall in supply. The upshot is that the RBA would still have to tighten policy further.

16 August 2022
Asia-Pacific
Australia
Australia & New Zealand
Labour Markets

Labour Market (Jun/Jul.)

June’s labour market figures revealed further evidence that the weaker economy is leading to a slightly less tight labour market. That said, by any metric the labour market is still exceptionally tight. And the robust rise in employment in June together with the leap in earnings growth will heap pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points at the next policy meeting on 15th September.

16 August 2022
UK
Growth and Activity
Inflation
Labour Markets
Monetary Policy

Prospects for female labour participation in India

We agree with PM Modi’s assertion in his Independence Day speech over the weekend that boosting female participation in the labour force could have a major positive impact on the economy, but in truth the government’s record in this area is poor. Looking ahead, there are still reasons to think that female employment will rise over the coming years but we aren’t convinced that it will be transformational. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this India Economics Update to clients of our Long Run Service. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

15 August 2022
Asia-Pacific
India
Labour Markets
Politics and Institutions

What recessions mean for the labour market

Given that unemployment rates have usually risen significantly in recessions, it is tempting to conclude that history is about to repeat itself, to the frustration of policymakers seeking soft landings in labour markets. But the pandemic has produced uncertainties that raise the possibility of jobless rates not rising too far.

15 August 2022
Global
Growth and Activity
Inflation
Labour Markets
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