client area » topics » Real Estate » Commercial
My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Real Estate

Commercial

Build to Rent will continue to thrive

The latest figures suggest that Build to Rent (BTR) investment has continued to expand rapidly. Despite this trend, which predates COVID-19, the sector remains under-developed by international standards. But with plenty of opportunities for investors, we expect that gap will close over the longer term.

16 August 2022

Commercial Property Lending (Jul.)

CRE lending was again exceptionally strong in July, outpacing even the gains seen in recent months. But with investment transaction totals softening in Q2 and our expectation of a further slowdown in activity in H2, we do not expect the strength of recent months’ net lending to persist much longer.

15 August 2022

Dublin office rebound to run out of steam

Rents in the Dublin prime office market rose rapidly in H1 2022, supported by a continued recovery in occupier demand. However, a cooling jobs market and strong supply pipeline mean that a slowdown is likely in the second half of the year.

15 August 2022
More Publications

Stretched affordability to hit sales and prices

Despite a reduction in our mortgage rate forecast, affordability is still set to be as stretched as it was during the mid-2000s housing boom. Alongside record-low homebuyer sentiment and a slowing economy, that means we have become more downbeat on housing activity this year. We now expect a 30% peak-to-trough fall in total home sales. The weaker outlook for new sales will weigh on single-family housing starts, which we think will end 2022 almost 35% below their end-2021 level. While tight markets and a lack of forced sellers will prevent a house price crash, we forecast that the annual growth rate will bottom out at -5% in mid-2023. From there, improving affordability will support a gradual recovery in activity and help price growth rise to 3% y/y by end-2024. Higher bond yields will also push apartment yields up a little this year and next. Coupled with a sharp slowdown in rental growth, that means we expect total annual returns to fall below 9% in 2022 and reach just 1.5% in 2023.

12 August 2022
North America
US
Commercial
Real Estate

Long Run Returns Monitor (Q3)

Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 10th August 2022. See a more detailed explanation of our views in our Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

12 August 2022
Global
Bonds
Commercial
Commodities
Equities
Growth and Activity
Inflation
Markets
Real Estate

Global trends point to a more difficult decade ahead

Commercial property wasn’t initially hit by the worsening in economic conditions at the turn of the year, but there are now growing signs of anxiety. Not only that, but even if the economic gloom is short lived and any downturn is mild, we expect structural factors to make for a listless global real estate recovery. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this UK Commercial Property Update to clients of our European and US Commercial Property Services.

12 August 2022
Europe
UK
Commercial
Real Estate

Valuations worsen further, but may be bottoming out

Commercial property valuations worsened for the sixth quarter in a row in Q2, and for all-property is now the most overvalued since late 2007. But since the end of June gilt yields have edged back and we doubt they will match their previous peak over the next couple of years. With property yields also set to rise we therefore doubt that valuations will continue to deteriorate.

11 August 2022
Europe
UK
Commercial
Real Estate

The six major markets will not be the only losers

Pandemic-accelerated migration patterns were already driving outperformance in the southern states. But they have also brought the poor performance of weaker markets to the fore. With those structural changes likely to continue to play out over the next few years, we expect metros such as Detroit, Indianapolis and Minneapolis to underperform in the coming years.

10 August 2022
North America
US
Commercial
Real Estate
1 to 8 of 1920 publications
Research Publications
Filters
My Subscription All Publications
Explore other topics
×
We use cookies to ensure you get the best experience on our website. Read our Cookie Policy for more information.

Email

business@capitaleconomics.com

Phone Number

+44 (0)20 7823 5000

Capital Economics Ltd

5th Floor, 100 Victoria Street
Cardinal Place
London
SW1E 5JL

Services

Insights

About us

Terms of Website| Terms of Sale| Privacy|

© 2023 Capital Economics Ltd