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Africa Data Response

South Africa Activity Data (Jun.)

The hard activity data out of South Africa for June suggest that the economy contracted by around 1.0% q/q in Q2, and we think that activity will remain weak in the coming quarters too.

17 August 2022

Africa Economics Update

Kenya Election Result

After nearly a week since voters went to the ballot box, William Ruto was finally announced President-elect in Kenya, but investors’ roller-coaster ride will probably continue over the coming days and weeks with political risks set to run high.Following Kenya’s elections on 9th August, results were announced today with William Ruto (currently Deputy President) declared the official winner of the…

15 August 2022

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 19.6% y/y last month and we think that the headline rate will rise a bit further. Policymakers are likely to respond by raising the benchmark interest rate from 14.00% to 14.50% at the next MPC meeting in September, but we suspect the tightening cycle will not run beyond that as price pressures start to ease and the elections come into view.

15 August 2022

Key Forecasts

Kenya’s elections up in the air, mixed FX bag across SSA

Africa Economics Weekly

27 November 2022

Our view

Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery is likely to remain slow going and our growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. While spillovers from the war in Ukraine will boost a handful of economies – notably Angola – in others, the fallout will cause economic pain. Food insecurity and public debt problems will grow. Default risks are highest in Ethiopia and Kenya, although Ghana’s recent turn to the IMF reduces such risks. Meanwhile, South Africa faces a slow-burning debt problem. With an ever-more hawkish global backdrop and the monetary policy tide turning in the region, we think that more and more African central banks will catch the hawkish bug.

Latest Outlook

Africa Economic Outlook

Debt problems come to the fore

Sub-Saharan African economies are suffering heavily from the spillovers from Fed tightening and the war in Ukraine. Policy in the region is likely to tighten further as a result, weighing on growth. Indeed, our growth forecasts for this year and next are generally lower than the consensus. And balance sheet risks are building. Sovereign default risks are particularly high in Ghana, Kenya and Ethiopia.

26 July 2022