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Middle East

Middle East Data Response

Middle East Data Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate jumped to a near-four-year high of 14.6% y/y in August as the impact of the weaker pound continued to filtered through. Inflation is likely to rise a little further over the rest of this year and with the pound set to be allowed to depreciate at a faster rate too, we think this will prompt a further 150bp of interest rate hikes, to 12.75%.

8 September 2022

Middle East Data Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Saudi inflation picked up to 2.7% y/y in July due to strengthening underlying price pressures, but we think that it is now at or close to a peak and will gradually fall back over the rest of this year and next. If anything, the risks are skewed to the downside given the growing likelihood of a cut to the VAT rate.  

15 August 2022

Middle East Data Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up to a three-year high of 13.6% y/y in July and we think it will remain above the Central Bank of Egypt’s target range until early 2024. Greater flexibility of the pound has taken some pressure off policymakers to hike interest rates aggressively, but we still think rates will rise a further 150bp, to 12.75%, by the end of this year.

10 August 2022
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Middle East Data Response

PMIs (Jul.)

July’s batch of PMIs were a mixed bag, but the readings reinforce our view that activity in non-oil sectors in the Gulf remains strong. Meanwhile, there were further signs that price pressures are easing. EM Drop-In (4th August, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our monthly online session on the big issues in emerging markets. In this 20-minute briefing, the team will be answering your questions about debt risks amid global tightening, the latest on the inflation outlook and much more. Register now. ​

Middle East Data Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

Saudi inflation rose a touch in June, to 2.3% y/y, on the back of higher food inflation. While we think that the headline rate will drift higher over the next couple of months months, it is unlikely to reach the pace seen in other parts of the world.

Middle East Data Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.)

Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed for the first time since November to 13.2% y/y in June, but inflation will remain above the upper bound of the Central Bank of Egypt’s target range until late-2023. The shift to a more flexible exchange rate has taken some of the pressure off policymakers to hike interest rates aggressively, but we still think rates will rise a further 150bp by the end of this year. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

Middle East Data Response

S&P Global PMIs (Jun.)

June’s PMIs were the proverbial mixed bag, but the bigger picture is that activity in the Gulf economies has remained robust and there are signs that firms are increasingly passing on higher costs to customers. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

Middle East Data Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May)

Saudi inflation edged down to 2.2% y/y in May as food and transport inflation slowed last month, and, while we think that the headline rate will drift higher over the coming months, it is unlikely to reach the pace seen in other parts of the emerging world.

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